‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by rumors. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.