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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."