Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics
The average number of daily homicides per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative data. But, security analysts have warned that homicide figures could fail to point to better national stability.
Notable Reduction in Daily Averages
Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November versus nearly 87 when the President began the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.
“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had in these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that in November the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.
Recent Background and Official Strategy
Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.
That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.
At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The main elements of the President's safety plan involve:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
- Increased collaboration between government authorities.
Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns
However, security experts urged caution that using murder data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“This would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”
Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.
“Numbers on homicides is not useful for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it may mask periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.
“Using the per-day mean renders spikes of violence invisible,” he concluded.
Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress
Where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Public Anger
But despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.
A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.
“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas remarked.