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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still