Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”