🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.